Seasonal rainfall likely to be 106 per cent of Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5 per cent, says IMD

Long range Forecast of rainfall for the 2024 South West monsoon season released today by IMD

Northern hemisphere snow cover extent during the last three months (January to March 2024) was below normal

Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Dr M. Ravichandran told the media today that the country as a whole is likely to receive above normal rainfall during the south west monsoon from June to September 2024.

Briefing the media about the summary of the 2024 Southwest Monsoon Season Rainfall today in a press conference held at National Media Centre, New Delhi, he said there will be 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole is 87 cm based on data of 1971-2020.

Dr. Ravichandran said, the forecast is based on both dynamical and statistical models, and it suggests above normal rainfall is likely over most part of the country except some areas of Northwest, East and Northeast India, where below normal rainfall is likely. He told media that the expected La Nina, positive IOD and below normal snow cover over northern hemisphere would be favourable for rainfall during southwest monsoon season 2024.

            Giving a detailed presentation DG, IMD, Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said that currently, moderate El Niño conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region and the Climate model forecasts indicate neutral condition by the beginning of monsoon season and La Niña conditions during second half of monsoon season.

He also informed the media that at present neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing and Climate model forecast indicate positive IOD conditions likely to develop during the monsoon season.

He added that since Sea Surface temperature conditions over the pacific and the Indian Ocean are known to have a strong influence on the Indian Monsoon, IMD is carefully monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over these ocean basins.

Dr Mohapatra further said that Northern hemisphere snow cover extent during the last three months (January to March 2024) was below normal which indicates above rainfall this monsoon season. Winter and spring snow cover extent over Northern Hemisphere as well as Eurasia has a generally inverse relationship with the subsequent monsoon season rainfall.He said, IMD will issue the updated forecasts for monsoon season rainfall in the last week of May 2024.

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